Layne VS. X - 22
Before I write about this hand, I want to say that I have as much respect for Layne Flack's NLH game as any other player today. I am presenting this hand because I think it is very instructive, and it was probably as important as any hand at the final table in determining the winner of the 2003 Reno WPT final event.
Layne started the hand with about 180,000 and X-22 had about 140,000. The blinds are 1000-2000 with a 400 ante. There are 12 players left with 870,000 in total chips. X and Layne are the clear chip leaders. I should also add that Layne is interested in one thing; winning the tournament. He sees this as an opportunity to win the event right here. If he busts X, he will have a huge chip lead, and he plays a big stack as well as anybody. Now I turn to the play of the hand.
X limps up front and Layne limps in late position with AQo. It is not my style to limp much, but limping can't be a horrible play here. The flop comes A95 rainbow. BB checks, X bets 22,000 into the 9400 pot. It is a big over bet, but X-22 likes to bet in units of 22. Layne now calls. The turn comes a 2. Check, check. The river is a J. Now X bets about 110,000 all-in into the 53,000 pot. Layne calls and loses to X-22's 55.
I would now like you to think about how you might have played this hand differently. Also, since Layne was strictly interested in winning the event, your actions should maximize your chances of winning the pot, while not going broke to a better hand and not getting bluffed (usually good things to do in a poker hand). Thoughts of "just surviving" should not influence your thinking here. I think the "correct" play is actually quite clear, and Layne agrees. Needles to say, Layne was sick about how he played this hand
The more I think about the pre-flop call, the more I don't like it. But that's how Layne likes to play. He doesn't mind playing in unclear situations. But, with a player like X-22 limping up front with anything, a raise might clarify the situation. Once he just calls before the flop, he now has a problem after the 22k bet on the flop. X could literally have anything. Axs, 9T, 87, JT, K4s or 55. He is also capable of getting all in with any of these. I know that Layne has a lot of confidence in his reading ability, as well he should. But, sometimes you can play the hand to make it a little easier to take those reads.
When I first heard about the hand from Layne, I thought the call on the flop was OK. I also leaned to betting about 30,000 on the turn. I have noticed that this seems to be the most popular line of play. But when I discussed the hand with Gus Hansen, he immediately came up with what I feel is the correct line of play. Raise to 44,000 on the flop. When I spoke to Layne the next day and told him that I felt that Gus had a good way to play the hand, he said, "I should have made it 44 on the flop." The play works well because the flop is so dry. If Layne instead of X had flopped the trips, the raise to 44,000 would be a great way to play the hand. He has position, and he makes it very difficult for Paul to bluff. He also makes Paul lay down his nothing hands, as well as hands like 9T and 87. The way he played the hand, he gave Paul two streets to hit a gut shot or "five outer" for free if that was the type of hand he had.
We can assume that Paul would have called the flop and checked the turn after the small raise. Assuming that Layne checks fourth street, when Paul moves in for 90,000 on the river, a lay down is much safer to make. He can only win if Paul called with absolutely nothing on the flop and went berserk or if he called with a worse Ace on the flop and now moves in. The latter play would be very odd; most players would check and then decide whether or not to call on the river with a weak Ace. By just calling the flop, he left all possible holdings by Paul open. Now the read becomes very difficult. Once he eliminates most of Paul's holdings with the raise, he can focus his read on whether Paul has a bad Ace or not. Layne did tell me that he felt like he was still in the tourney. He had 40,000 left and he was still confident he could build it back up; never underestimate the man's heart. Unfortunately, the very next hand he picked up JJ and opened. It came to Paul in the BB who hadn't even finished sta cking his chips. He moved Layne in with the A8, and a few seconds later Layne was on the rail.
I give Layne a lot of credit for his willingness to play in these murky waters. Sometimes, however, a big snake is lurking down there and bites you on the butt.