A Simple Plan
Here's a hand I played recently in a Bellagio tournament. I think you'll find it interesting.
I had T3600 to start the hand. The blinds are 50-100 in a NLH tournament. I opened for T300 in middle position with KhKc. Everyone folds to the big blind who calls and he had me covered by a few hundred. He is a regular high limit player, but I felt he might play a little too loose and aggressive. I didn't have much of a read on his hand at this point.
Flop: AsQc8s. He checked and I bet 400. He called quickly. I didn't think he had a big hand and he might have been on a draw but I certainly didn't have a definite read at this point.
Turn: [AsQc8s] 5d. He checked. Still no confident read. Now what? I'd like you to stop here and consider what you might do. T1450 in the pot. You have T2900 left.
I did not act quickly here. I had many options and I wanted to explore them. Since I could be pausing with a big hand I did not think I was giving anything away by taking my time.
I thought his most likely hand was a bad ace, but as I said before, I was not sure. I felt that I could take the pot away from a bad ace, but I wanted to minimize my chances of going broke to a big hand. I was not willing to just let that T1450 in the pot go to his stack. I thought it would look a lot better in mine.
So, I bet T900. My plan was to first try and get as good a read as I could while he called, if he called. And, if I was sure he somehow called with a bad ace on the turn, I was going to fire my last T2000 on the river, even if the draw hit. My other strategy was to fold if he raised on the turn. I am looking pretty pot committed when I leave myself only T2000 and if he wants to bluff me here he deserves the pot. I felt like this way I don't pay off a big hand like A-5 or A-8. And the only way I go broke is if he is willing to go nearly broke with A-x, or slow play a big hand by calling and checking the river. He could also make a bad call with a draw, but again he would have to get there and then check to get my chips.
I felt that this was the best way to leverage my remaining chips. I am only betting T900, but my opponent knows I have another T2000 behind that bet. If he wants to call with a bad ace, he is really facing a bet of T2900, not T900.
Here is an example where I think that moving in is way too aggressive. You can only get called by a hand that has you beat if you bet T2900. But, with my T900 bet, I don't even know what I want him to do. If he calls, he might have a suspicious queen, or a big draw like KsJs. If he folds he might have a bad ace. I love making bets where I'm not sure what I want my opponent to do. Of course, I want him to fold here, but he might call occasionally with some hands that I have beat.
As it turned out, he folded after about a two minute think. I still don't know if he had the draw, queen, or ace. But I do think that I made the right bet for the situation; too expensive for most draws and bad aces to call. But not enough to get me broke against most big hands.
I usually find the quiet hands, to be the most fascinating, and sometimes most profitable. Moving in before the flop can certainly be a profitable strategy, but sometimes your most informed bets can happen when you let a hand develop first.