Not So Simple Razz Hand
An analysis of a seemingly regular razz hand at the Bellagio illustrates the complexity behind the game.
I saw this razz hand played recently at Bellagio.
1000-2000 with a 200 ante.
Player A brings it in for 300. A 3 limps in, fold, fold and player B calls with a 4 up.
A: x-x-J-A
B: x-x-4-9
The 3 hits a K.
Player B bets 1000 and A raises. The 3-K folds and player B calls.
A: x-x-J-A-Q
B: x-x-4-9-8
Player B bets and player A calls.
A: x-x-J-A-Q-J
B: x-x-4-9-8-4
Player B bets and player A calls. Player A is getting 11,900 to 2000 to call. He could be drawing dead, but he is most likely still live. He has played the entire hand assuming that player B has a bad one in the hole and he is right. Player B's hole cards are a 3 and a Q.
A: x-x-J-A-Q-J-x
B: 3-Q-4-8-9-4-8
The question is what should player B do on the river now that he has missed his hand? Take some time to consider the answer and then continue. It might influence your play to know that player A is loose, creative and very aggressive. The right play is not obvious. It all depends on how often you think player A will bet when he makes a J low. Based on what player A said after the hand, I would guess that he would bet a J low about 70% of the time after player B checked. If we assume that player A bets a J low 70% of the time, player B should bet. Here is why:
Player A had: 2-6-A-J-Q-J. Player B had: 3-Q-4-8-9-4-8. Also a 3-K folded. With these folded cards, player A will make a J-9 low or better 20 times, a J-10 four times, and miss 13 times. If player B bets, he will lose $2000 twenty-four times and win $2000 13 times for a loss of $595 per bet. I assume player A will always call and never raise, a pretty safe assumption. If player B checks, player A will check when he misses and when he makes a J-10, and he will bet 70% of the time he makes a J-9 or better. This means he will bet 14 of the times he makes a J-9 or better. This will result in a net loss for player B of $757 per check.
The interesting thing I saw, was that betting about 70% of the time player B checks and you make your hand is a great strategy for player A. If you are too passive and don't bet your hand enough, player B can check when he misses and save money. But if you bet all the time when player B checks and you make, he can check raise when he makes his hand and do better then betting out.
I have left out bluffing and folding strategies which would make the analysis of this situation extremely difficult. For a simple razz hand, trying to create a perfect game theory strategy for both players before they look at their river cards is extremely complicated.